These two studies explore how advanced AI will reshape the economy, converging on a stark conclusion: human labor will become economically peripheral. One study models a future where "genius-on-demand" AI takes over routine knowledge tasks and confines human expertise to the cognitive frontier. The other envisions a world with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) where compute—not labor—drives growth, causing wages to stagnate and labor’s share of GDP to vanish. Together, they portray a future in which economic expansion persists, but human work becomes optional and largely non-essential to progress.
- Sebastian James
- September 29, 2025
- 10:11 pm
- 0 comments
This is a brilliant article on the near future of AI. It's timeline-based and filled with details and sourcing. An excerpt:
"If you lay this map of the future of AI on top of the political calendar, you can see bad things coming. As a result of administration policies, it's highly likely there's a big dose of stagflation in our future. At least until we have opportunities to change things in '26 and '28. But according to the map there's something coming that, in an environment of stagflation, will guillotine a global recovery before it starts.
Job losses due to AI.
It will make conventional sense for business to turn to AI to optimize services and operations in a global recession. It shouldn't be a surprise to see more and more people turn to the technology as an alternative solution. But the jobs that AI does during the next recession will never come back, for the most part."